Republican News · Thursday 13 June 1997

[An Phoblacht]

Smile, you're on 2.63%


Martina Kenna and Brian Kenna waiting for the first results to come in

It might not seem like something to advertise, but the figures show the Dublin dispossessed have put Sinn Féin on the brink of electoral gains in the capital, writes Rita O'Reilly.

In 1992 it was 1.95% of first preference votes, with the party standing in all constituencies. This time, five candidates picked up 2.63% of the citywide share. At the RDS count centre on Saturday last, the other parties threw wary eyes at the Shinners. This time round though, it was less to do with their fear of `subversives' and more to do with the fear of god being put in them.

After all, there it was, the Sinn Féin vote, creeping in even in Terenure and upper Crumlin, holding high in mid and lower Crumlin and swamping the other candidates in St James' in the heart of the Liberties. And that was just Dublin South Central, where one of the few women candidates, Martina Kenna, gained 4.77% of first preferences, up from 1.70% in 1992 and staying in after the elimination of the Green and the PD. Her team is now talking about ``a comprehensive review of local government areas with a view to challenging for a Leinster House seat''. Local authority gains are already a must for Sinn Féin in Dublin, but a longer term strategy is also being taken seriously.

This was most in evidence in the Tallaght count centre in Dublin South West, where away from the election fever brought on by Seán Crowe's 3,725 first preference votes, a cold sweat was breaking out on assorted other faces. The reality hitting several parties was that before his final count elimination, Crowe was just 269 votes behind outgoing Labour TD Eamon Walsh. Council seats in Tallaght for Sinn Féin seem assured, and in the next general election, the constituency is wide open. Eamon Walsh will be fighting to recover his seat from Fianna Fáil's Conor Lenihan, but it is Seán Crowe's vote that most threatens the chances of both these and PD leader Mary Harney and Pat Rabbitte.
 
Sinn Féin must seek to become the first choice for voters who have in the past plumped for the type of Labour, Democratic Left and Fianna Fáil candidates who trawl working-class and unemployed areas for votes before turning their back once in power

As in other areas of significant Sinn Féin support, turnout is the big problem. Republicans will need to persuade people that community empowerment combined with the use of voting power provides the best chance for change. In Fettercairn in Tallaght, turnout was just 35%, in Killinarden it was around 40%, and in the whole constituency it was one of the lowest in the country at 55.91%.

Sinn Féin election workers in the area say they were the only party trying to get the vote out in low-turnout estates. They blame the low turnouts as much on the absence of the other parties on polling day as on people's general disillusionment.

In Dublin North East Sinn Féin candidate Larry O'Toole's heartland of Darndale had a 33% turnout in `92 but the work of Sinn Féin this time brought the turnout to almost 50% - the bulk of the votes going to O'Toole. A limited registration campaign in Dublin Central by Christy Burke's workers indicated a significant proportion of people ignorant of how to vote.

A continuous campaign will be needed on both voter registration and political education if the party is to help bring power back to the areas it seeks to represent. While new confidence is already evident in Dublin that this can be done, encouraging that confidence to publicly assert itself will be a harder slog.

What is clear is that running on the drugs issue alone does not translate into votes, a lesson hard won by the independent candidate André Lyder in Dublin South Central. Brian Kenna, Sinn Féin director of elections there, says it has been Sinn Féin's ability to identify all the issues which link into the drug problem that has persuaded voters out in drug-ravaged areas. ``The issue of drugs is an awful lot more complex than just `pushers out' and Sinn Féin is alone amongst the political parties in being prepared to address all the issues''.

If Sinn Féin is to pick up support beyond the pockets where issues like drugs have put it in the public eye, it is a sustained articulation of what republicanism stands for on all issues that will do that. Clearly voters identify with Sinn Féin as a party on the drugs issue, as well as with the individual activist candidates. This was particularly so in Dublin North East and Dublin West with John McCann. In both areas new ground was won in areas like Blanchardstown (Dublin West) and Kilbarrack and Donaghmede (Dublin North East).


Larry O'Toole, Dublin North East, who more than doubled his vote,
watching the number-crunchers at the RDS count.

For several elections Dublin Central was regarded as the only realisable chance of a seat in Dublin for Sinn Féin. Boundary changes and the continuing presence of Independent Tony Gregory always made it difficult for Christy Burke. This time the added factor was the tight Fianna Fáil transfer strategy which ensured a second Fianna Fáil seat. But this election has put the party on the map in all constituencies with Dublin South-West in particular looking good for a seat next time out.

What will buoy republican confidence in urban areas is that there is now no doubt that the republican vote is the decisive vote in several key constituencies. In Dublin North East Larry O'Toole's vote was crucial to the loss of a seat by Democratic Left's Pat McCartan in 1992 and this time he outpolled McCartan's successor. O'Toole in North-East and John McCann in Dublin West both have strong local votes which continuing work will transfer into council seats.

In Dublin South Central, Democratic Left's Eric Byrne might look at his anti-Sinn Féin stance as one good reason for why he lost his seat - almost 1,000 transfers went from Martina Kenna to Fianna Fáil candidates while 467 went to Byrne.

Sinn Féin transfer patterns in the five Dublin constituencies it stood in give some indication as to where the party is at in the public mind.

For example, 11,129 transferable Sinn Féin votes saw a number of other candidates in and out of office. Only 8.6% of these votes went to the PDs or Fine Gael, 44.3% went to Fianna Fáil while 47.09% went to Labour, Democratic Left or other left candidates.

Sinn Féin voters' perception of Fianna Fáil as a defender of nationalists combined with its pulling power in working-class areas is clearly in evidence in these transfers, but in more than equal evidence is the left voter. Sinn Féin can attempt to chip away at the Fianna Fáil vote, based on that party's record of betrayal of both nationalists and the working class, but in Dublin at least Sinn Féin candidates tend to get eliminated before they reach the point of challenging for Fianna Fáil transfers.

That leaves Sinn Féin looking for transfers from independents and centre-left and left parties to bring it into a fighting position. In this election in Dublin, just 2,880 transfers came to Sinn Féin in this way, the bulk coming from independents, followed by the Green Party, the Socialist Party and the almost extinct Workers Party.

Transfers from the Green Party are particularly notable because it is the only party of these three which stood in all five constituencies Sinn Féin stood in and all its candidates were eliminated before Sinn Féin's. The patterns show that Green voters are reluctant Sinn Féin voters, tending to transfer to either Labour, Democratic Left or other left candidates before Sinn Féin.

While the Socialist Party (formerly Militant Labour) may have gained votes solely on the water charges issue, its performance in Dublin South West along with Clare Daly's credible 2,971 first preferences in Dublin North indicate more than Joe Higgins' win in Dublin West that voters are not afraid of the `s' word.

Sinn Féin must seek to become the first choice for voters who have in the past plumped for the type of Labour, Democratic Left and Fianna Fáil candidates who trawl working-class and unemployed areas for votes before turning their back once in power. To get the transfers necessary to tip it over the threshold beyond elimination, Sinn Féin must also persuade committed supporters of independents or smaller left parties to transfer to it before anyone else.

With an RTE exit poll showing 21% of young votes went to anti-establishment and alternative parties, Sinn Féin is well-placed to become the main choice for new voters in the capital. But new voters are tending not to vote. Only a distinct alternative to the existing establishment will change their minds. Sinn Féin may well be that alternative, but if it doesn't let them know, the electoral barometer will continue to swing between the two establishment groups in Leinster House for a very long time.

Contents Page for this Issue
Reply to: Republican News